Texans to keep it close against Colts

The best NFL value bet this weekend is the Texans plus ten versus the Colts with the quintessential sell high fade.

Winning money betting is all about sniffing out value. 

That value usually comes from seeing what Joe Public does and doing the opposite.   

What did we all just witness? 

The Colts playing on Prime Time Monday Night Football and battling a great Ravens squad and almost winning. 

Carson Wentz looked like the playboy of old, passing for over 400 yards and would have upset the Ravens had he had a decent kicker.

Meanwhile… They are playing a stinky Texans team with no-name quarterback Davis Mills.

A team that just blew a big lead, choked in the second half and lost to the struggling Patriots.

Who do you think the betting public likes? 

Sexy Carson Wentz who threw for over 400 yards on Prime Time, or mediocre Mills and the Texans?   

Oddsmakers opened this line a high 9.5 points, hoping someone would see value in the Texans - instead the public bet it up to 10 points. 

This line should be closer to eight points and the approximately four per cent of the time you pull out a push or win instead of loss by getting the extra value points is your long term profit.

Remember oddsmakers charge you -110 or juice or vig or commission. 

You need to win 52.5 per cent of your against the spread bets to break even and over 54 per cent to produce a half decent return on your investment.

To do this, pick wisely and seek value - this Sunday that play is the Texans +10.