Spain vs Italy Preview, Odds, Predictions (June 15)
Initial Thoughts
Will history repeat itself as Spain and Italy meet in successive Nations League semi-finals?
After missing out on Qatar the Italians will be keen to cement their elite status and book a place in Sunday’s final. While Spain are a side very much in transition after new manager Luis de la Fuente suffered a back after a shock defeat in only his second game in charge.
The Narrative
After the domestic season ended with two Serie A sides losing in European finals (sure, Fiorentina as well but who cares about the Conference League) Roberto Mancini’s Italy will hope to restore some national pride this evening when the Azzurri line up against Spain.
Meeting in a Nations League semi-final for the second time in three years, neither side is at their best, with patchy results and personnel changes providing choppy waters for the two former World and European champions.
After failing to qualify for Qatar, Italy had their work cut out in a Nations League group that featured Germany, England and Hungary.
But Mancini’s side threw off that World Cup disappointment to finish top of the pile, with a 5-2 defeat against the Germans the only black mark against a ruthless qualifying campaign.
Spain also topped their Nations League group, and in their final two group fixtures bounced back from a shock 2-1 loss to Switzerland to beat CR7’s Portugal 1-0 away.
Nuts and Bolts
Since then La Rojas have made changes at the top, with head coach Luis Enrique making way for the incoming Luis de la Fuente.
The former Under 21 boss got off to a flying start with a 3-0 win over Norway in the European qualifiers back in March. But the Spanish then crashed back down to reality with a 2-0 loss to lowly Scotland just three days later.
The pressure is on De la Fuente to mastermind a big performance against the Italians, and it's anyone’s guess which version of these two teams will be on show in tonight’s Nations League semi-final.
Spain came out on top the last time these sides met at the same stage of the 2021 UEFA Nations League, in a fixture that also saw the Italians surrender a record breaking 37 game unbeaten run.
And the two nations had also met in the semi-final of the EUROs just a few months earlier, with the Italians winning that tie on penalties en route to lifting to the trophy.
Ferran Torres scored both goals when Spain overcame Italy in the 2021 Nations League semi, but the Barcelona man will be absent here, as will the now retired Sergio Busquet who’s been La Roja’s midfield fulcrum for a generation.
And after Croatia upset the odds to overcome Holland in yesterday’s other semi-final, this is a tie that could easily go either way with both teams still very much a work in progress.
Homestand Picks
All odds courtesy of Northstar Bets
Outside of the Nations League Italy have been less effective, suffering two defeats against Austria and England in their last two outings. Spain will give EVERYTHING to erase that 2-0 loss to Scotland in their last fixture, so we’re picking La Rojas to get the job done inside 90 minutes.
There were seven yellow cards and a red the last time these sides met in the 2021 Nations League semi-final, so plus money odds for 5 or more here looks like good value on the night.
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