Real Madrid vs Manchester City: UCL Semi-Final Preview, Odds, Predictions (May 9)
Initial Thoughts
Manchester City are in their best ever position to lift the Champions League trophy. Problem is: to reach the final they have to go through one of the best ever teams in the competition’s history.
The Narrative
Could this finally be the year?
Pep Guardiola is widely regarded as one of the best in the biz. But despite a host of title wins and trophies across Europe, it's been over a decade since the Spaniard last got his hands on the Champions League trophy.
Plenty of that has had to do with one team. Real Madrid are the current holders and have five UCL titles since 2014.
Up until recently you’d never bet against Los Blancos in this competition, but several important factors make this Champions League semi-final one of the most delicately balanced in years.
The first is Real Madrid’s patchy recent form.
Sure, Ancelotti’s side were victorious in their Copa del Rey final against Osasuna on the weekend. But Madrid have lost HALF of their last eight games in La Liga - racking up defeats against Barca, Villerreal, Girona and Real Sociedad.
The second factor is Eling Haaland.
The Norwegian hitman is an absolute phenomenon who’s already broken the Premier League scoring record with four games left to play, and who may well be the difference for Pep and Man City this season.
Guardiola dominated the Bundesliga but couldn't turn that into a UCL trophy, and his City teams have dominated the Premiership without being able to go up a level in Europe.
Is Haaland the Messi-like catalyst that will finally reunite Pep with European club football’s highest honour? If so, City will never have a better chance - with Real Madrid looking eminently beatable for the first time in years.
Nuts and Bolts
Despite Real’s inconsistent form domestically, Ancelotti’s side come into this fixture on the back of five straight wins in the Champions League.
All of those have come against British opposition as well, with Real seeing off Rangers 5-1 in the final group match before eliminating Liverpool and Chelsea with home and away victories in the last two knock-out rounds.
City made it ten Premier League wins in a row in their 2-1 win against Leeds on the weekend. And despite winning their last two UCL fixtures at the Etihad by an aggregate scoreline of 10-0, City haven't won away in Europe since their opening group match against Sevilla back in September.
One thing that’s assured here is goals, with a whopping 17 goals in the last four matchups between these sides.
Homestand Picks
All odds courtesy of Northstar Bets
Erling Haaland Over 1-5 shots on target (+145)
He scored in both legs of the quarter-finals against Bayern Munich and has eight in his last seven games in the league. Haaland is good value for two shots on target at the Bernabéu.
When they met in last season’s semi-final, City won the first leg 4-3 AND then went 1-0 up at the Bernabéu. But Real scored two injury time goals and still found a winner in extra time. Los Blancos don't flinch in this competition and City haven’t won away in Europe in their last five matches.
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