NBA Betting 101 | Bet the road dogs to win the first half

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My favourite value bet is first half NBA underdogs on the moneyline.

What did I just say?

There is a ton of value betting NBA underdogs to win the first half outright. 

This is a real bet that exists for every NBA game and it's a great value play.

Let me explain the bet and the value using this example.

A good team like the Mavericks are playing on the road at a great team like the Lakers.

The Lakers will be somewhere between a four and a half and an eight and a half point favourite. 

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This wide range includes the nuances of back-to-back games, recent records, and matchup issues.
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Game underdogs between four and a half and eight and a half points will be between three to two and two to one money line to win the first half, meaning you’d get back between a hundred and fifty and two hundred of profit for every a hundred dollars you wagered on the underdog.

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Why is this bet so great? Because home court is not worth anything in the first half of the game.

Remember, the reason the Lakers are such a big favourite is because of home court.

The reason home court is worth so much in the NBA is referee bias. We’ve all been to big games or seen it on TV.

Late in the game, Lebron is pumping up the crowd, ducks his head, rams into two defenders, scores and gets a foul, even though he just charged.

That’s what home court is and why it is valuable.

But, it is NOT valuable early in the game.

Early in the game the refis trying to be unbiased or maybe even anti biased.

He will give Lebron all the calls late, not now.

Furthermore, the awesome Lakers aren’t interested in crushing Dallas early, but just getting a win.

If the Lakers are down five points in the second quarter, nobody in LA cares and Lebron will still rest.

Dallas can win the half and the Lakers can turn it on and still win the game.

This scenario happens often.

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Winning thirty five percent of your bets at two to one odds or forty two percent at three to two is an amazing margin.   

It is super tough to get an edge consistently, but betting road dogs to win the first half getting 3-2 or better on your money is one of the best systems out there.