Croatia vs Spain Preview, Odds, Predictions (June 18)
Initial Thoughts
Will Spain’s new manager win a trophy after only four games in charge or will Croatia finally get their hand on some silverware after four major tournaments?
With substitutes coming on to decide both semi-finals, will Sunday’s Nations League Final represent a blockbuster start for Spain’s new era or a fitting finale for Modric and Co?
The Narrative
Upsets and underperformance were the order of the day in both Nations Leagues semi-finals, as Croatia flipped the script against the Netherlands and Italy’s fabled catenaccio came undone against Spain.
EURO winner Leonardo Bonucci gifted the Spanish an opener after only three minutes, dawdling on the ball on the edge of the area before being dispossessed by Yeremy Pino.
Ciro Immobile equalized for the Italians after only 11 minutes, and with the game heading for extra time Spain kept their composure to secure an 88th minute winner courtesy of Joselu.
In the other semi - with the tie delicately balanced at 2-2 - both Frenkie De Jong and Virgil van Dijk were humbled by a virtuoso performance from Croatia’s Bruno Petković.
Thrown on as a sub in the 90th minute, Petković took the match by the scruff of the neck in extra time, scoring a sumptuous third to put the Croatians ahead and then winning the penalty that put the game to bed.
Barca’s Frenkie De Jong will be waking up in a cold sweat for years, after Petković turned him on a sixpence en route to that sublime third goal. And Dutch head coach Ronald Koeman cut a forlorn figure on the sidelines when the final whistle was blown.
Nuts and Bolts
It's fair to say the sparks flew last time these sides met in the first knockout round of the EUROs two summers ago.
After a Pedri own goal gave Croatia the lead inside 20 minutes, Spain were 3-1 up with only 15 minutes to play courtesy of goals from Pablo Sarabia, César Azpilicueta and Ferran Torres.
But (very) late strikes from Mislav Oršić and Mario Pašalić took the game into extra time, only for Morata and Mikel Oyarzabal to ultimately power La Rojas across the line.
Spain dominated the possession in that 2021 matchup, racking up a whopping 23 shots with ten of those on target. But this time around they’ll be without the attacking prowess of Ferran Torres, with Leeds bench-warmer Rodrigo currently leading the line.
Real Madrid’s Luka Modric may be 37 years old, but the midfield maestro was still one of the strongest competitors on the pitch in the semis - pulling the strings in the centre of the field and registering both an assist and a goal on the night.
Had Bonucci not gifted Spain their opening goal, La Rojas may well have struggled to find their way into Sunday’s final. So if Zlatko Dalić’s men can keep their composure in the early stages, could this finally be the year that Croatia’s golden generation get their just rewards on the highest stage?
Homestand Picks
All odds courtesy of Northstar Bets
Luka Modric Over 0.5 Shots on Target (+135)
We picked him to make a big impact in the semi-final and Modric did not disappoint. The Croatia captain knows the Spanish game inside out, and we’re backing him to put on another star turn in Sunday’s matchup.
They know. We know it. This is Croatia’s last chance to cash in on a golden generation of footballers. Spain had a good slice of luck against the Italians. Croatia have been here before and we’re backing them to hold their nerve in this Nations League final.
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