Benfica v Inter Milan UCL Quarter Final : Preview, Odds, Predictions (April 11)
Initial Thoughts
As the UEFA Champions League reaches the quarter-final stage this week, an underperforming Inter Milan will make the difficult journey to Portugal to face high-flying Benfica at the Estadio da Luz on Tuesday.
The Narrative
Inter Milan have already beaten a Portuguese side in the UCL knockout rounds this season, racking up a 1-0 aggregate victory over Porto in the Round of 16.
A late Romelu Lukaku goal gave Simone Inzaghi's side the slight edge at the San Siro, and in the reverse fixture at the Estádio do Dragão Inter survived 19 attempts on goal while having only 36% of the possession to sneak through into the quarter finals.
But the Nerazzurri are having a dreadful time in Serie A of late, and head into Tuesday’s clash on their worst run of form since early 2018.
A point against 15th place Salernitana was their first in four matches, having suffered three straight defeats in the Italian top flight and leaving the Italian giants outside the Champions League places for the first time since November last year.
Benfica have beaten Italian opposition this year, having already racked up home and away victories against Juventus in the group stage.
But despite occupying the top spot in the Primeira Liga since August last year, The Eagles come into Tuesday's clash on the back of a first regular time defeat of 2023.
Roger Schmidt’s side fell 2-1 to FC Porto last weekend in Benfica’s first home loss of the season - ending an unbeaten run at the Estádio da Luz that stretched all the way back to May 2022.
That defeat - combined with the fact Inter overcame Porto in the last round - will give Simone Inzaghi a glimmer of hope that the Italian side can upset the odds on Tuesday.
Nuts and Bolts
In terms of domestic form, this match pits a high-scoring winner against a low-scoring loser.
Inzaghi's men have almost completely dried up in front of goal in the Italian top flight of late. Across their last four league outings, Inter have amassed 87 shots on goal but found the net only twice.
One of those was from the penalty spot, and in the last two games alone Romelu Lukaku has missed not one but TWO open goals.
In contrast, Porto are scoring goals for fun. Prior to last Friday’s loss, Benfica were on a ten game winning streak in the Primeira Liga, racking up 28 goals, conceding only twice, and keeping eight clean sheets in the process.
So far Benfica have been able to replicate that form in Europe as well. Roger Schmidt’s side are one of only three teams still unbeaten in the Champions League this term, and with 23 UCL goals only highflying Napoli have been more effective in finding the net.
The Portuguese league leaders defeated Club Brugge 7-1 on aggregate in the last round, with five of those goals coming at home. And striker Gonçalo Ramos has been deadly of late, with a brace in that clash and 10 goals across his last 13 matches.
Homestand Picks
All odds courtesy of Northstar Bets
With Benfica in this kind of form, the Portuguese are great value for the win on Tuesday.
Benfica put 4 goals past Juventus at home in the group stage and scored 10 in their last three wins at the Estadio da Luz.
Gonçalo Ramos Anytime goal +195
The striker has found the net in three of Benfica's last three victories.
.jpg)
