AC Milan vs Napoli UCL Quarter Final : Preview, Odds, Predictions (April 12)
Initial Thoughts
Recent changes in fortune mean Napoli don’t come into this match as massive favorites. But Spalletti’s side still has enough to get the job done at the San Siro.
The Narrative
Played 29, won 24. Napoli’s record in the Italian top flight this season has been nothing short of phenomenal.
Luciano Spalletti’s side boasts an 18 point lead at the top of the Serie A table, having gone on an 11 game winning run before the World Cup break and another 8 match hot streak in 2023.
The Azzurri are in a Champions League quarter final for the first time in their history after topping their qualifying group in style. The Serie A leaders scored three or more goals in 5 of their 6 Group E matches, racking up big wins against Liverpool, Ajax and Rangers, before blowing away Europa League Champions Eintracht Frankfurt 5-0 on aggregate in the Round of 16.
That impressive series of results means Napoli arrive in the last eight as the Champions League's highest scoring side - with 25 goals overall - so Spalletti’s teams really should be heading into Wednesday night’s clash as massive favorites. But there are two reasons that’s not the case.
Reason #1 is the loss of striker Victor Osimhen to injury. The Nigerian hitman is Serie A’s top scorer this season and has 25 goals in all competitions.
Prior to his injury in late March, Osimhen had scored or assisted in all but two of Napoli’s previous 18 matches stretching all the way back to October 2022.
On both of the occasions Osimhen drew blanks Napoli lost the game, and since his injury Spalletti’s side have suffered a 4-0 defeat and sneaked a 2-1 win via a late own goal.
Which bring us to reason #2: that 4-0 loss came at the hands of AC Milan a little over a week ago.
Nuts and Bolts
Milan are 22 points behind Napoli in the league table, but Stefano Pioli’s side have been difficult to beat in Europe this season.
The Rossoneri conceded only four times in the UCL group stage, and won 1-0 on aggregate against Tottenham Hotspur in the first knockout round.
Milan have already been eliminated from the Coppa Italia, leaving Champions League qualification their sole focus for the rest of the season.
And that could free up the Rossoneri to play their best football against a team they literally blew off the pitch in that 4-0 demolition at the start of the month.
But Milan followed that dazzling win with a 0-0 draw against Empoli last weekend, and Napoli have also come out on top on their last three consecutive visits to the San Siro.
Spalletti team are on a seven match hot streak away from home, and have surely done enough to secure a first Scudetto since the time of Diego Maradonna.
But has Osimhen’s injury now cut short their hopes of European glory as well?
Homestand Picks
All odds courtesy of Northstar Bets
If Napoli can regain their composure without Osimhen leading the line, the Serie A leaders have enough momentum this season to secure the win in Milan.
After that 4-0 win AC Milan will come out and attack Napoli in front of their home fans, so expect an open game at the San Siro on Wednesday.
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